The week ahead holds a full slate of new reports from the Realtor.com economics team as well as market indicators to watch.
The week ahead holds a full slate of new reports from the Realtor.com® economics team as well as market indicators to watch.
Following Monday’s release of the quarterly Market Clock report from senior economist Jake Krimmel, on Tuesday, senior economist Anthony Smith publishes a luxury market showdown featuring two areas known for their outdoorsy lifestyles: Portland, OR, and Denver.
On Wednesday, senior economist Hannah Jones publishes her latest review of trends in the investor market, examining home purchases by investors ranging from small mom and pops to large institutions.
On Thursday, Hannah is back with an analysis of data on outstanding mortgages that will examine the lock-in effect and how it is likely to unfold over the next year. As well, Anthony reviews what the latest housing data says about the market in our Weekly Trends report.
There are a few key metrics to watch this week, including pending home sales and new construction indicators on Tuesday, and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate data on Thursday.
Pending home sales, published by the National Association of Realtors®, measure contract signings, which are when both a buyer and seller have agreed to the terms of a sale.
Pending home sales are an early indicator for closings in the next month or two, as typically contract periods are generally in the 30–60 day range. I’m anticipating a weaker reading for these September pending home sales.
In September, Realtor.com data showed that pending home sales weakened from the prior year as mortgage rates increased. It’s worth noting that slightly different methodologies mean that indicators from Realtor.com and NAR can sometimes differ.
Last week’s existing-home sales data did manage to hold on to some month-to-month momentum, which we may see in this week’s pending home sales, but they are very likely to be weaker than at this time in 2025.
New-construction data is likely to be flat for the month, which should mean decent growth from last year. Single-family starts, in particular, were quite low last year. Multifamily starts have been far noisier and harder to predict. In the permit data, I’m watching for a third straight month of yearly growth in single-family permits.
This week’s Freddie Mac mortgage rate data will be interesting. Last week, mortgage rates were flat. Late in the week, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped out of the 5.2% to 5.3% range it had held since late September, which, if it holds, will mean some mortgage rate relief this week.
Mortgage rate relief is welcome for those hoping to take advantage of the seasonal sweet spot.
Nationally, the best time to buy was in early October. However, last week, conditions were prime in five markets spread from coast to coast, including San Francisco and Washington, DC.
This week, just four markets with a wide geographic range see peak conditions, namely, Birmingham, Cleveland, San Jose, and Seattle.
For full reports, the Market Clock, and raw housing data, visit realtor.com/research.