The coming week will feature new reports from the Realtor.com economics team, as well as key indicators for the housing market.
The coming week will feature a full slate of new reports from the Realtor.com economics team, as well as key indicators for the housing market and a crucial interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
In addition to Monday's Manufactured Housing Report from senior economist Joel Berner, the Realtor.com economics team will publish a pair of city-level rental market reports.
On Tuesday, senior economist Jiayi Xu will detail the latest rental trends in New York, followed by a look at the Los Angeles rental market on Thursday.
Also on Thursday, senior economist Hannah Jones publishes her analysis of the markets topping the Fall Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market ranking, and senior economist Anthony Smith digs into the luxury cut of that data.
Additionally, Jiayi will be cover the latest weekly trends in housing data on Thursday.
Key housing indicators to watch
There are also number of housing-related economic data points to watch this week, including the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index and monthly data on New Home Sales on Tuesday.
The Case-Shiller index tracks repeat sales of the same homes over time, which makes it a reliable yet backward-looking read on trends. Since it reflects sales that closed a few months ago, I expect it to show meager home price growth, consistent with the easing we saw in the median existing-home sales price trends at that time. I also expect the regional divergence to continue, with markets in the Midwest and Northeast posting the strongest gains.
New-home sales are likely to be soft. Rising mortgage rates pushed pending home sales to a record low in September, and builders are leaning on price cuts and incentives to keep new homes moving.
Wednesday will bring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and as well as the quarterly Housing Vacancy Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, even as inflation pressures linger. The Fed is balancing an ongoing oil supply shock with a domestic economy that’s being reshaped by the AI buildout, even as questions about the return on those investments are jostling equity markets.
The Housing Vacancy Survey gives us a quarterly look at homeownership and vacancy rates. The third quarter saw mortgage rate headwinds, which could soften homeownership. However, we also saw reported increases in sales to first-time homebuyers, which could have the opposite effect.
If the homeownership rate dips, it would be the lowest reading since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Rental vacancy seems to be leveling off and is likely to steady or drop as tougher buying conditions keep more households renting. Homeowner vacancy has been inching higher, and that trend could continue as inventory builds and sales remain sluggish.
Finally, Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate data on Thursday could bring further good news. As I noted last week, the 10-year Treasury yield has been easing, and mortgage rates have followed. The drop accelerated late last week, which could mean more rate relief ahead.
This relief is coming late in the "best time to buy" season. While the national best time to buy a house was in early October, last week, conditions were prime in four markets.
This week is the last major week of the "best time to buy" season when eight markets see optimal conditions: Boston; Indianapolis; Jacksonville, FL; Orlando, FL; Pittsburgh; Portland, OR; Richmond, VA; and St. Louis.
For full reports, the Market Clock, and raw housing data, visit realtor.com/research.