The 10 Affordable Cities Where Homeowners Are the Least Locked In by Housing Costs

Many homeowners who began the year hoping to move may now be locked in by soaring mortgage rates that threaten to nearly double their monthly payments—but a handful of budget-friendly markets still offer relief.

These rare pockets of affordability are clustered primarily across the Midwest and South, including Pittsburgh; Baltimore; Buffalo, NY; New Orleans; Detroit; Birmingham, AL; San Antonio, TX; Akron, OH; McAllen, TX; and Philadelphia.

Nationally, the typical U.S. mortgage holder pays roughly $1,300 in principal and interest per month. If they were to purchase a home today, that payment would surge by more than 85%, or $1,100, according to a new report on America's "locked-in" homeowners from Realtor.com®. 

The market's current predicament can be traced to the COVID-19 pandemic years, when historically low mortgage rates whipped up a buying and refinancing frenzy. As of July 2026, more than a quarter (27%) of all fixed-rate mortgages on record for single-family homes and condominiums were originated in 2020 and 2021 alone.

Once mortgage rates began climbing again in 2022, homebuying and refinancing both hit a wall. Over the subsequent four years, only about 1 in 4 mortgages on record was originated, highlighting the sharp pullback in activity as a result of higher borrowing costs.

"For those who purchased before mortgage rates shot sharply higher, the sentiment of 'I couldn’t afford to buy my home today' continues to ring true in most cases, contributing to historically low mobility and some of the leanest for-sale inventory on record," notes Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones.

In other words, homeowners who were fortunate enough to secure a sub-4% mortgage rate at the height of the pandemic are reluctant to list. Trading up or downsizing today means taking out a mortgage with a steeply higher rate, gobbling up a much bigger share of their income.

Just how much bigger? Purchasing a median-priced home at the Oct. 22 rate of 7.32%, assuming a 14.3% down payment, would translate into a monthly principal and interest payment of nearly $2,500, almost double the $1,300 typical owners currently pay.

Where the 'lock-in' grip weakens

However, in parts of the U.S. where home prices remain accessible, the "lock-in" effect is felt less acutely, keeping inventory—and people—moving and creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

"The affordability of these markets enables mobility, which means the typical outstanding mortgage rate is higher, which helps reduce the payment jump associated with moving, which reinforces affordability," explains Jones.

In the South and Midwest, approximately three-quarters of mortgages carry a rate below 6%, compared to 78% nationally.

(Realtor.com)

Additionally, nearly a quarter of all outstanding mortgages in these two regions were originated within the past four years at 6% or higher, compared with 21.6% in the Northeast and 17.7% in the West.

"That mix means fewer homeowners in these regions are clinging to 3%–4% rates, which lessens the lock-in effect," says Jones.

Across the 100 largest metros, Pittsburgh stands out as the nation's least "locked in" housing market, where a seller purchasing a new home in town would see a 43% increase in their monthly mortgage payment—a modest penalty compared to the 165% in San Jose, CA.

Baltimore is a close second, with a 45% payment gap, followed by Buffalo, at 46.1%.

Life events vs. low rates

"A 3% mortgage is a great reason to stay in a house, but it's not always a great reason to stay in a house that no longer fits your life," Colleen Collier, associate broker at Re/Max Plus in Buffalo, tells Realtor.com.

The latest housing data reflects the market's mobility and affordability. In October, Buffalo posted the largest year-over-year increase in active listings (+34.4%) among the 50 largest metros, paired with the largest growth in new listings (+13.1%).

In Buffalo, NY, a seller purchasing a new home would see a modest 46% increase in their monthly mortgage payment. (Neil/Adobe Stock)

At the same time, the median listing price in the metro registered at $259,999, down 2.8% from a year ago and sitting more than $155,000 below the national median. 

Collier notes that while more local homeowners are willing to make a move, it does not necessarily mean they are comfortable giving up their low rates. They are being compelled by life changes.

"They're retiring, downsizing, or relocating to be closer to family," says the broker. "Many are looking to reduce maintenance and their overall living expenses. Others are relocating to a warmer climate. ... They're taking the equity they've built and putting it toward their next purchase."

Collier recently represented clients who sold their home of 30 years to downsize into an apartment. They were able to get a final sale price well above asking, which was enough to cover at least 10 years of apartment living, and fund future travel plans and a new car.

"What made this experience so rewarding was that the homeowner had more equity than they realized," says Collier. "After more than three decades in their home, selling wasn't simply about moving into a smaller space. It was about creating financial freedom and enjoying the next chapter of life."

In Akron, a typical homeowner currently paying just $868 per month should expect to see that figure rise nearly 62% under present-day market conditions—well above Buffalo’s level but still a far cry from the most locked-in coastal markets. 

"The financial difference between staying in a home with a low mortgage rate and purchasing another home may be less dramatic here than in higher-priced markets," Mike Valerino, CEO of Akron Cleveland Association of Realtors, tells Realtor.com. "However, that doesn't mean the mortgage rate lock-in effect has disappeared."

According to Valerino, in Summit County, where Akron is located, new listings and closed sales were down in September while the average sales price increased, suggesting that despite the market's relative affordability, homeowners are still weighing the financial implications of moving.

"Life circumstances remain important drivers of housing decisions," he says, echoing Collier's argument. "Growing families need more space, empty nesters may want to downsize, and job changes, retirement, and family considerations can create reasons to move that outweigh the financial benefits of staying put."

At the same time, Valerino says that Akron's relative affordability does not insulate buyers and sellers from the challenges affecting housing markets nationally.

"The mortgage lock-in effect may be less severe here, but the cost of the next home still plays a major role in whether someone decides to move," he says.

Hardest-hit coastal metros

In roughly a third of the 100 largest U.S. metros, a move to a median-priced home would more than double the monthly payment. Ballooning borrowing costs disproportionately penalize expensive coastal and fast-growing markets, leaving local homeowners feeling virtually trapped by their lower mortgages.

According to the latest data, the most "locked-in" markets in the U.S. include Portland, ME, San Jose, and Los Angeles, where anticipated monthly mortgage payments surged by more than 140%, grinding mobility to a halt. That friction has severely squeezed inventory and put upward pressure on home prices, sidelining first-time and budget buyers.

Portland, ME, is the most "locked in" housing market in the U.S. where homeowners are trapped by their low mortgage rates. (Wangkun Jia / Adobe Stock)

"Because homes in these markets are already expensive, buyers typically rely on larger mortgage balances, which amplifies the impact of rising rates," says Jones.

In Portland, for instance, a current owner holding on to a 4% mortgage rate makes a median payment of $1,270 per month. If they were to purchase a home comparable to theirs with a 26.2% down payment and took out a 7.32% mortgage, their payment would jump a staggering 167% to $3,392.

What will it take to unlock the market?

Mortgage rates would have to drop a long way from their current 7.18% level to close the gap between what current owners pay and what a buyer would pay today.

Rates would need to reach 6% before half of U.S. households could afford the median-priced home, and even then a move would still mean a payment about 62% higher than what the typical mortgage holder spends now.

Crucially, however, Jones stresses that falling mortgage rates alone are not enough. Because home values have appreciated significantly over the past few years, buying a median-priced home with a 4% mortgage would still cost about 29% more per month than what existing homeowners pay on their original COVID-19-era loans.

Valerino agrees, maintaining that there is no one "magic number" that will unlock the market.

"Rates in the 5% range could make moving more attractive to some homeowners, but affordability involves more than the interest rate," he says. "Home prices, property taxes, insurance, and accumulated equity all factor into that decision."

The market is poised to loosen gradually rather than all at once as more households buy in to higher rates, softening price growth narrows the gap, and rising incomes boost buying power.

"The lower-priced Midwest and South markets, where the gap is smallest and more loans carry higher rates, are likely to see the most activity first," predicts Jones. "Large coastal markets will need both lower rates and lower prices or significantly higher incomes before sellers feel free to move."